Tourism analysts have dramatically revised their forecasts. Initially, they projected a 9% growth in US-bound travel this year. Now, experts predict a 5.5% decline instead. This shift represents a potential $18 billion reduction in tourist spending. You can already see the evidence at border crossings. Canadian travel to the US has plummeted. Crossings have dropped by up to 45% at some entry points compared to last year. This matters greatly because Canada sends the largest number of international tourists to America. According to a research report, “US inbound travel spending in 2025 could be 10.9% lower than the baseline outlook, which totals to an estimated $18B loss in 2025 alone.” The hospitality industry still struggles to recover from pandemic disruptions. As a result, industry experts are analyzing why so many people are canceling trips to the US.
Why the Sudden Drop?
Several key factors drive tourists to reconsider or outright cancel their American trips. Let’s examine what’s happening. Recent tariffs against major trading partners have sparked retaliatory measures. These actions directly impact tourism. Consider what happened after the announcement of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods. Canadian airlines quickly began reducing flights to popular US destinations.
A March poll revealed troubling numbers. About 36% of Canadians who had planned US trips had already canceled them. Moreover, passenger bookings on Canada-US routes have plunged by a staggering 70% compared to 2024. Meanwhile, European attitudes have shifted too. Research conducted in March found concerning trends. Over half of the people in Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%), and Denmark (74%) now hold unfavorable opinions of the US. Furthermore, in five of seven countries surveyed, US favorability has hit its lowest point since 2016.
Unwelcoming Borders
High-profile incidents at US entry points have made international travelers nervous. Recent months have seen multiple cases of foreign tourists being detained for extended periods. A British visitor was handcuffed and held for over ten days. The reason? A visa issue. Another troubling case involved a Canadian tourist. She was attempting to renew her visa at the US-Mexico border. The result was shocking. She spent 12 days in detention. During this time, she was held in crowded cells. She was even placed in chains.
These alarming stories have prompted swift reactions. Several countries have updated their travel advisories. For instance, the UK Foreign Office now explicitly warns visitors: “you may be liable to arrest or detention if you break the rules.” This warning wasn’t present in earlier versions. Similarly, Germany, Canada, and others have issued comparable updates. Sacks also noted, “High-visibility border security and immigration policies and enforcement actions are also expected to discourage visits.” In other words, strict border practices are keeping tourists away.
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Who’s Feeling Unwelcome?
The decline isn’t limited to just Canada and Europe. Mexican visits to the US are declining again. They previously fell by 3% during an earlier period of strained relations. Now air travel from Mexico has dropped 6% in February compared to last year. Additionally, several European nations have taken extra steps to protect certain citizens. France, Germany, Denmark, and Norway have all issued specific travel warnings. These advisories target transgender and non-binary citizens. They warn about new requirements to declare biological sex at birth on visa applications.
Where Are Travelers Going Instead?
As travelers cancel trips to the US, alternative destinations see impressive growth. Hotels in Bermuda report a surge in Canadian inquiries. Some predict a 20% boost in revenue from Canadian visits alone. Europe also benefits from this shift. Rental properties across the continent have experienced significant growth. Summer reservations from Canadian travelers have jumped 32% compared to last year.
The economic impact reaches far beyond just accommodation. Restaurants benefit. Attractions see more visitors. Local businesses in these alternative destinations gain unexpected revenue. This boost comes during what might have been slower seasons. Why the change? Travelers cite not just political disagreements. They also mention practical considerations. Many believe they’ll get better value elsewhere. They expect a more welcoming experience in other countries. On top of that, American vacations have become less attractive financially. Rising costs due to tariffs and a strengthening dollar have made other destinations more appealing.
Long-Term Concerns for Major Events
The ripple effects could impact upcoming major events hosted in the US. Growing concerns surround the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This global sporting event will take place across the US, Canada, and Mexico. Visa and entry restrictions might seriously disrupt participation. The situation looks challenging for many international fans. Visitors from countries like Brazil, Turkey, and Colombia face serious hurdles. They could wait up to 700 days for visas. That’s nearly two years of processing time! The problems extend beyond just the World Cup. The International Olympic Committee has voiced concerns too. They worry about the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles. While US officials insist that “America will be open,” the current trajectory tells a different story. The road ahead looks difficult for international events that rely on global participation.
Can US Tourism Recover?
The US travel industry faces a difficult period of adjustment. America risks losing its appeal as a premier destination. This stems from multiple factors. Visa delays continue to mount. Border enforcement grows stricter. Concerns over human rights issues increase daily. Airlines have already begun responding to the uncertainty. Many cut routes altogether. Others reduce flight frequency to certain destinations. Furthermore, some carriers have revised their financial forecasts downward. They cite “softness in travel spending” as the primary reason.
The consequences could reach far and wide. If the current trend of tourists canceling trips to the US continues, the impact will spread beyond tourism operators to the broader economy. Potentially, hundreds of thousands of jobs nationwide face risk. Tourism contributes significantly to the US economy. Therefore, these changes represent a deeply concerning shift. Even when current tensions eventually ease, rebuilding trust may prove extremely difficult. Regaining international travelers’ confidence will likely take far longer than losing it did.
